Upcoming tariffs on vehicles made outside the US

You have no idea how things actually work if you don’t think a significant percentage of tariff costs aren’t passed onto the consumer.
I am in the wholesale home improvement business and have years of direct experience importing products from overseas to the U.S., including tariffs, duties, drayage, etc.

More recently I have seen some of the recently imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese products on a group of lighting, flooring, and cabinet products. In most cases, at least for the time being, the increase in landed costs for us as a wholesale buyer have been averaging about 8-10%. Some a little higher, some a little lower. What that means is the sellers are eating a good portion of the tariff. FWIW, the tariff is paid by the "importer of record". So if Walmart (for example) buys product FOB (meaning they take possession at the port in Shanghai), Walmart pays the tariff. If they take possession in Long Beach CA, the company that shipped the goods pays the tariff. Regardless, Walmart can go to the manufacturer and ask/demand they lower their cost to share in the tariff pain.

Pointing out the obvious, higher margin/more profitable products like apparel leaves more room for eating tariff costs and minimizing final sales price increases. Lower margin products result in more pass through of tariff prices.

My guess would be that Toyota and dealers make more on the LCLC models than the 1958 so maybe any increases will be smaller in % on the more expensive models.

Oh by the way, at my company and many others, throughout the tariff increases from his first term, even when we took deposits, we noted that "if tariff rates increase, our final sales prices may change". Fortunately, while we sell some imported products, most are already in country when quoted. For many LC's that are "in transit", could mean anywhere from the middle of the Pacific to some highway in North Dakota. The former will cost 25% more for Toyota, the latter, not a dime.

All that, and all politics aside, the tariffs could disappear before 4/3 and be written off as bluster, or stick and slow sales and/or shift model/brand sell through. Selfishly, I am glad I bought mine last fall before all this nonsense started. BMW dealers were told this week that BMW will not raise their costs through May, thereafter the dealers don't know. Each other brand will declare to their dealers how their costs will be impacted. over time. I'd be pretty anxious if I were a car dealer.

And yeah, our car insurance will go up because of this, just like home insurance has as lumber and roofing materials have become more expensive over the last few years.
 
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I am in the wholesale home improvement business and have years of direct experience importing products from overseas to the U.S., including tariffs, duties, drayage, etc.

More recently I have seen some of the recently imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese products of 20% on a group of lighting, flooring, and cabinet products. In most cases, at least for the time being, the increase in landed costs for us as a wholesale buyer have been averaging about 8-10%. Some a little higher, some a little lower. What that means is the sellers are eating a good portion of the tariff. FWIW, the tariff is paid by the "importer of record". So if Walmart (for example) buys product FOB (meaning they take possession at the port in Shanghai), Walmart pays the tariff. If they take possession in Long Beach CA, the company that shipped the goods pays the tariff. Regardless, Walmart can go to the manufacturer and ask/demand they lower their cost to share in the tariff pain.

Pointing out the obvious, higher margin/more profitable products like apparel leaves more room for eating tariff costs and minimizing final sales price increases. Lower margin products result in more pass through of tariff prices.

My guess would be that Toyota and dealers make more on the LCLC models than the 1958 so maybe any increases will be smaller in % the more expensive models.

Oh by the way, at my company and many others, throughout the tariff increases from his first term, even when we took deposits, we noted that "if tariff rates increase our final sales prices may change". Fortunately, while we sell some imported products, most are already in country when quoted. For may LC's they are in transit, which could mean anywhere from the middle of the Pacific to some highway in North Dakota. The former will cost 25% more for Toyota, the latter, not a dime.

All that, and all politics aside, the tariffs could disappear before 4/3 and be written off as bluster, or stick and slow sales and/or shift model/brand sell through. Selfishly, I am glad I bought mine last fall before all this nonsense started. BMW dealers were told this week that BMW will not raise their costs through May, thereafter the dealers don't know. Each other brand will declare to their dealers how their costs will be impacted. over time. I'd be pretty anxious if I were a car dealer.

And yeah, our car insurance will go up because of this, just like home insurance has as lumber and roofing materials have become more expensive over the last f few years.
All in all, you’re right—it’s a mess. And I appreciate your take. It’s refreshing to see someone able to talk through all this without turning it into a political war or picking sides over things that really shouldn’t divide us in the first place.

At the end of the day, it’s a rough situation all around. The constant whiplash and uncertainty are clearly starting to bring out the worst in people.
 
No, but was during the 4years of prior administration.
The highest inflation number since the pandemic was 7% in 2021. Caused by easily identifiable, global, and non-political vectors.

The inflation rates each year from 2020 through 2024 were:

2020 - 1.4%
2021 - 7%
2022 - 6.5%
2023 - 3.4%
2024 - 2.9%

There’s no way to math that to 25% even if you just add the numbers together, which would not be the right way to do it.

By 2024 inflation was back at 2.9% which is where it still is. The tariffs will certainly increase it.
 
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It hurts Toyota more. 25% increase in sales price is suicidal for Toyota, they will give or take absorb it for 6-8 months and spin up new capacity in Texas/Alabama, etc. More likely scenario is that they will get an exemption for 6-8 months while they figure out capacity and supply chain.

USA is a huuuuge market for Toyota.
This. IF the tariffs happen and are not waived for Japan/Toyota.
 
Not smart enough to know if tariffs are the answer or not. Consuming certainly became cheaper in a globally competitive economy though it sure seems that we dropped the ball when it came to finding new ways to re-employ people displaced by the redistribution of manufacturing overseas (still don't get how Canada got targeted as the big boogieman).

I am old enough to remember back when most industry was fairly heavily protected by trade barriers of one kind or another. Yeah, I guess America was great back then, childhood was better (at least that's how I reemeber it). Men were mostly employed in what felt at the time like secure, masculin jobs, but there were a lot of things that were "normal" back in the 70's and early 80's that I'm not sure people would go for these day's - like a family having one car, kids walking/biking to school, dad taking the bus to work days when mom had to go shopping. There'd be one TV, one phone for all to share, going out to eat would be reserved for
special occasions, fruit in the winter was a treat, you got two weeks vacation a year - a week to visit the in-laws at Christmas and maybe a week in July at lake Wassepenamee. Two cars, a tv in every room, cell phones for all, beach vacations, Disney, Hawaii, ski trips- that was all rich people stuff.

Honestly it'd probably be better for our mental health and the planet writ large to learn how to live without so much cheap crap. I just don't think most people are willing, much less capable of that kind of change without massive social and economic upheaval- but maybe that's what the powers that be have in mind.
Sir. Applause for you 👏 This hits deep. As a kid born in the early 80s in small town America, I wholly agree.
 
The highest inflation number since the pandemic was 7% in 2021. Caused by easily identifiable, global, and non-political vectors.

The inflation rates each year from 2020 through 2024 were:

2020 - 1.4%
2021 - 7%
2022 - 6.5%
2023 - 3.4%
2024 - 2.9%

There’s no way to math that to 25% even if you just add the numbers together, which would not be the right way to do it.

By 2024 inflation was back at 2.9% which is where it still is. The tariffs will certainly increase it.
ok....i'll just leave this here.


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Source: Latest Inflation Statistics: The Prices Rising And Falling Most | Bankrate.
 
All in all, you’re right—it’s a mess. And I appreciate your take. It’s refreshing to see someone able to talk through all this without turning it into a political war or picking sides over things that really shouldn’t divide us in the first place.

At the end of the day, it’s a rough situation all around. The constant whiplash and uncertainty are clearly starting to bring out the worst in people.
Maybe you shouldn't say people have no idea what they are talking about and then later in the same day cry about being divided. Look in the mirror.

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I never said a large portion would not get passed on, I said it would not be 25%. What i stated was inline with Altitude's post. But yet you felt the need to call me for some reason.
 
It's not proposed, it's been implemented starting on 3 April 2025. It's difficult to assess the immediate impact, but substantially higher new car prices are likely across the board. Virtually no car is wholly manufactured in the USA, so even "USA Assembled" cars will see increases. Automobile makers have global supply chains, not country specific.
I stand corrected, the reports I read earlier this am said it was proposed, not written into implementation.
 

Well, you can compound the numbers I posted and the result is 22.9% over the period, so I agree. 22.9% is not 25%, but never mind. The thread up to the point you posted was about annual inflation rates and I assumed that was what you meant too. Maybe you were happy enough to imply it.

In any case, to the degree we saw inflation rise in 2021 it was caused by global supply chain constraints the pandemic created. US inflation during that period was no worse than the global average and ours decreased more quickly afterwards than any other G7 nation.

I don’t think the previous administration had anything to do with either the increase or the decrease, it was shit that happened in the very broad economy. But this guy now is making discrete, traceable policy choices that will cause inflation. Which floors me because he ran on a hard anti-inflationary platform and most of the thoughtful conservatives I know who supported him said that at least he’ll get inflation under control. Let’s see where we are in two years. I hope I’m wrong.
 
While this is true of a cumulative cost shift over the past five years, inflation rates are typically measured over an annual period which in this example would be an average of 4.6% inflation since 2020. There's a significant difference in a 23% increase in five years and a 25% increase due to tariffs in a single year. It's also important to note that once tariffs are in effect and consumers have normalized that price increase the removal of the tariffs won't reduce the prices - just like reduced inflation rates don't undo past inflation.

I do suspect that one reason Toyota assembles the Tundra in TX and the Tacoma in Mexico is that we still have a 25% tariff on truck imports from 1964 in effect.
 
My guess is dealerships and wholesalers jack up the price in anticipation and to cover the imputed risk of tariffs, whether assessed or not. You’ll certainly see an increase in new vehicle prices across the board.
 
Well, you can compound the numbers I posted and the result is 22.9% over the period, so I agree. 22.9% is not 25%, but never mind. The thread up to the point you posted was about annual inflation rates and I assumed that was what you meant too. Maybe you were happy enough to imply it.

In any case, to the degree we saw inflation rise in 2021 it was caused by global supply chain constraints the pandemic created. US inflation during that period was no worse than the global average and ours decreased more quickly afterwards than any other G7 nation.

I don’t think the previous administration had anything to do with either the increase or the decrease, it was shit that happened in the very broad economy. But this guy now is making discrete, traceable policy choices that will cause inflation. Which floors me because he ran on a hard anti-inflationary platform and most of the thoughtful conservatives I know who supported him said that at least he’ll get inflation under control. Let’s see where we are in two years. I hope I’m wrong.
Well I hope you're wrong too. The whole point to my original post was hoping people didn't freak out before anything happened and have at least a small idea of how tariffs work. We can agree to disagree on the political non sense.

I'm having 275/70r18s installed on Saturday, I might start a build thread, will probably be more fun than this topic.
 
In a meeting with industry executives, the president said car companies better not raise their prices in response to the tariffs. It will be interesting to see all the changes in the next 6-12 months if these tariffs remain in effect. I'm old enough to remember Michael Moore proposing this very thing back in the 1990's and early 2000's. As a Michigan native, the documentary Roger & Me exposed the problems with global "free" trade 35 years ago and its devastating effects on small town, USA. Most Michiganders, liberal and conservative, seem very pleased with this new plan for what it's worth. I can understand how Americans not living in the upper Midwest feel very differently.
 
This proposal doesn't necessarily punish foreign cars. Many foreign car manufactures produce in the US and will not be affected. Toyota has 10 or 11 US plants. Unfortunately, for Land Cruiser, Toyota does not build these in the US. Hopefully, Toyota changes this soon. There have been several recent announcements from the likes of Honda, Hyundai, etc of bringing production back to the US. What's ironic is that the left-leaning unions have already fully embraced this proposal by a conservative president. With that said, I'm skeptical this will ever go into law at the proposed rates.
Gross... who wants an American made Land Cruiser?
 
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